Ir al menú principal de INEbase Hypothesis on the future development of migration

1 Foreign immigration

The projections calculated based on the 1991 Population Census, were established under the assumption of a constant annual flow of entries from abroad equal to 35 thousand people during the entire projection period, in agreement with the figures that were being registered. However, as of 1998, the comparison of the projected flows with those observed reflects a deficit in the prior ones that is especially significant in the year 2000, due to the extraordinary increase in the arrival of foreigners experienced.

Beginning with the most simple component in the case of Spain, migrations abroad have been supposed as null, as with the projection object of this revision.

Referring to immigration, among the different sources of information, Change of Residence Statistic (CRS), Populations Censuses, Migrations Survey… the first has been considered the most adequate, both from a practical and theoretical viewpoint, given the flows covered for the following of the same.

The changes in the management of the Municipal Registers, brought about by modifications to the 1996 regulations, have caused the CRS to adjust to new, not yet consolidated, information sources

Consequently, immigration in the CRS, is that in which citizens declare their origin as from abroad upon inscribing in the Municipal Register, these must be completed with the discharges by omission registered in the Continuous Register, which are those that correspond to individuals who at the time of inscribing themselves in a certain municipality manifested their origin as from abroad.

It is necessary to differentiate the arrivals by nationality: Spanish or foreign.

Referring to the population of Spanish nationality, the CRS flows available for the 1991-1999 period have been considered more adequate.

Referring to foreign population, the CRS figures for the 1991-1997 period have been considered more adequate. For 1998, 1999 and 2000, the Registers figures are taken into account.

The fact of not being able to calculate risks of immigration (independent of nationality) and the spectacular changes registered in the last two years in the arrival of immigrants to Spain, does not permit the establishment of consistent hypothesis. It would be more appropriate to talk about scenarios, in the sense of determining what would be the growth and the age structure of the population. Due to this, when setting a total volume of arrivals in the present revision, three alternatives have been established, which are covered in this file.

The flows used in the revision correspond to hypothesis 1. They have been distributed by Autonomous Communities and by Provinces according to the average of the observed distributions for 1998 and 1999 in the CRS.

Distribution by sex and age in each one of the geographical scopes considered has been established by applying the average of the observed distributions for 1998 and 1999 in the CRS from the Continuous Register.

2 Domestic migration

Domestic migrations are those that occur as a consequence of the changes of residence municipality within Spain. Among them, it is neccesary to distinguish the changes of Autonomous Community of residence and the changes of Province of residence, thus facilitating, respectively, the interautonomic and interprovincial migrations.

At the time of carrying out the present revision the observed CRS figures are used for the 1991-1999 period. Those corresponding to 1991-1994 were already incorporated at the time in the projections, due to which the exits and arrivals observed between 1995 and 1999, distributed by sex and age according to national total of interautonomic migrations, are added.

For the 2000-2005 period, constant and equal global interautonomic mobility rates have been applied, for each sex, to the semi-sum for 1997 and 1998. The distribution by simple ages is calculated applying the average of the 1997 and 1998 distributions, thus the development is more recent.

For the update of the Provincial figures after 1994, those observed between 1995 and 1999 have been incorporated. As of this last year, a balance has been estimated, for each Province, as an average of the balances observed in 1997 and 1998, which is distributed by five year age groups according to the same distribution as the interautonomic migrations. The resulting flows by Provinces are adjusted to those corresponding to Autonomous Communities by means of a proportional distribution.



Projection of the immigrations according to three hypothesis and of immigraton of spaniards. 1991-2050.
 
Years   Immigration from abroad2     Immigration of spaniards3  
 
  Hypothesis 1
  Hypothesis 2
  Hypothesis 3
 
1991   35.000   35.000   35.000 13.767
1992   35.000   35.000   35.000 20.663
1993   35.000   35.000   35.000 17.665
1994   35.000   35.000   35.000 15.572
1995   35.000   35.000   35.000 16.553
1996   51.652   51.652   51.652 19.407
1997   63.904   63.904   63.904 22.261
1998   122.503   122.503   122.503 24.032
1999   193.520   193.520   193.520 28.243
2000   360.293   360.293   360.293 24.845
2001   250.000   250.000   250.000 24.103
2002   227.000   236.842   250.000 23.361
2003   204.000   223.684   250.000 22.619
2004   181.000   210.526   250.000 21.877
2005   160.000   197.368   250.000 21.135
2006   160.000   184.210   250.000 20.393
2007   160.000   171.052   250.000 19.651
2008   160.000   157.894   250.000 18.909
2009   160.000   144.736   250.000 18.167
2010   160.000   131.578   250.000 17.425
2011   160.000   118.420   250.000 16.683
2012   160.000   105.262   250.000 15.941
2013   160.000   92.104   250.000 15.199
2014   160.000   78.946   250.000 14.457
2015   160.000   65.788   250.000 13.715
2016   160.000   52.630   250.000 12.973
2017   160.000   39.472   250.000 12.231
2018   160.000   26.314   250.000 11.489
2019   160.000   13.156   250.000 10.747
2020   160.000   0   250.000 10.000
1During the 2021-2050 period, immigration is constant and equal to that of 2020.
2They refer to the total of spaniards and foreigners.
3The immigration of spaniards is the same for the three hypothesis, except the second one that, as of 2001, suposses that total immigration from abroad reduces in a linear manner, until it is null in 2020.

Last update 8/08/01

Immigration projections between autonomous communities. 2000 and 2005

    2000           2005        
Autonomous Communities
  Immigration
  Emmigration
  Balance
  Immigration
  Emmigration
  Balance
Males                        
NATIONAL TOTAL   132.088   132.093   -5   130.251   130.234   17
Andalucía   16.299   20.273   -3.974   16.067   20.341   -4.274
Aragón   3.761   3.817   -56   3.714   3.700   14
Principado de Asturias   2.591   3.425   -834   2.555   3.286   -731
Illes Balears   7.922   3.636   4.286   7.812   3.614   4.198
Canarias   11.796   5.943   5.853   11.632   5.919   5.713
Cantabria   2.755   2.192   563   2.715   2.129   586
Castilla y León   8.428   10.390   -1.962   8.314   10.047   -1.733
Castilla-La Mancha   9.831   8.468   1.363   9.689   8.387   1.302
Cataluña   11.223   13.095   -1.872   11.061   12.851   -1.790
Comunitat Valenciana   13.591   9.401   4.190   13.400   9.299   4.101
Extremadura   4.253   4.858   -605   4.194   4.805   -611
Galicia   5.123   6.879   -1.756   5.063   6.705   -1.642
Comunidad de Madrid   17.538   22.322   -4.784   17.292   22.020   -4.728
Región de Murcia   4.927   4.290   637   4.864   4.340   524
Comunidad Foral de Navarra   2.409   1.879   530   2.374   1.835   539
País Vasco   5.697   8.019   -2.322   5.615   7.737   -2.122
La Rioja   1.618   1.364   254   1.598   1.327   271
Ceuta y Melilla   2.326   1.842   484   2.292   1.892   400
                         
Females                        
NATIONAL TOTAL   124.969   124.977   -8   122.065   122.060   5
Andalucía   15.742   17.778   -2.036   15.378   17.656   -2.278
Aragón   3.564   3.807   -243   3.477   3.663   -186
Principado de Asturias   2.570   3.219   -649   2.515   3.063   -548
Illes Balears   6.916   3.448   3.468   6.749   3.404   3.345
Canarias   8.989   5.190   3.799   8.777   5.128   3.649
Cantabria   2.511   2.061   450   2.455   1.997   458
Castilla y León   8.250   10.443   -2.193   8.063   10.041   -1.978
Castilla-La Mancha   9.644   8.471   1.173   9.427   8.331   1.096
Cataluña   11.570   12.828   -1.258   11.296   12.479   -1.183
Comunitat Valenciana   13.090   9.466   3.624   12.790   9.262   3.528
Extremadura   4.103   4.690   -587   4.005   4.608   -603
Galicia   4.892   5.876   -984   4.781   5.668   -887
Comunidad de Madrid   18.081   21.819   -3.738   17.657   21.264   -3.607
Región de Murcia   4.601   3.684   917   4.491   3.675   816
Comunidad Foral de Navarra   2.239   1.816   423   2.192   1.760   432
País Vasco   5.485   7.511   -2.026   5.357   7.195   -1.838
La Rioja   1.485   1.273   212   1.451   1.235   216
Ceuta y Melilla   1.237   1.597   -360   1.204   1.631   -427

1The sum of the previous balances is zero, due to the estimations carried out.

Last update 8/08/01

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