The Harmonised Business Confidence Index decreases by 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026 as compared with the third quarter.
Quarterly rate
The five sectors analysed reduced confiance with respect to the previous quarter. Trade (-3.3%) registered the greatest decrease. On the other hand, Other services (-0.9%) registered the lowest decrease.
The five sizes of establishments analysed presented a decrease in confidence, as compared with the previous quarter. 1,0000 or more employees (-2.9%) registered the greatest decrease. On the other hand, From 200 to 999 employees (-1.0%) the smallest decrease.
20.5% of business establishments managers considered that the performance of their business during the fourth quarter of 2026 would be favourable, while 14.8% thought it would be unfavourable.
10.7% of business establishments managers consider that employment, referring to personnel hired in their business, will increase in the fourth quarter of 2026, while 12.0% believe that it will decrease.
20.7% of business establishments managers foresee that the price level of their business will increase in the fourth quarter of 2026, while 4.6% estimate that it will decrease.
21.1% of business establishments managers expressed a favourable opinion regarding the performance of their business in the third quarter 2026. In turn, 15.5% had an unfavourable opinion.
Business confidence decreased in the fourth quarter of 2026 as compared with previous quarter in 15 autonomous communities and increased in the other two.
The largest decreases were recorded in Región de Murcia (-5.1%), Comunidad Foral de Navarra (-4.4%) y Illes Balears (-4.2%). The only increases were recorded in Canarias (2.3%) y Galicia (0.5%).
Quarterly Rate
The data published today are final and will not be subject to further revision. There have been no updates to previous publications. All results are available on INEBase.
According to the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/137 INE has started the works to incorporate the new National Classification of Economic Activities CNAE-2025 in all the statistical operations.
In the case of the BCI, the release of the first results with CNAE-2025 will take place in April 2028.
The objective of this survey is to find out, at a given time, the vision that establishment managers have about their situation.
The BCI survey collects opinions from establishment managers regarding the performance of their business for each last quarter and on their expectations for each coming quarter.
The methodology is based on the Japanese TANKAN index, that is, there is no weighting or elevation depending on the characteristics of the establishment since the opinion of each informant counts equally.
The survey methodology enables the integration of analogous data compiled by the statistics services of the Autonomous Communities, once their consistency is checked so they can be incorporated into the general process of the survey. There are currently agreements signed to this effect with Andalucia, Illes Balears, Canarias, Castilla y León, Cataluña, la Rioja, Extremadura and Comunitat Valenciana.
Further information is available in the methodology and the standarized methodological report.
INE's statistics are produced according to the European Statistics Code of Practice. For further information at Quality at INE and Code of Practice.
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