Population Projections

The population projections show how the Spanish population will evolve if the established demographic trends continue as they are, which combine current demographic trends with the opinion of a group of experts in demography from all over Spain who were surveyed, as was done in the previous edition.

The Population Projections do not constitute a prediction, in the sense that they do not aim to determine what is the most likely outcome.

According to the projections published today, in the next 15 years Spain could gain 4,251,150 inhabitants (8.6%), exceeding 53.8 million people in 2041.

In 2076, the population is projected to reach 53.0 million, with an increase of 3.38 million compared with 2026.

The progressive increase in deaths, exceeding the number of births throughout the projected period, will result in a negative natural result. This negative natural result will be exceeded by the positive migratory balance in most of the years of the projective period, which will cause, on balance, an increase in population. Consequently, the population increase will be due exclusively to international migration.

For its part, the population born in Spain would gradually decrease and would go from the current 79.8% of the total to 59.6% within 50 years.

The number of births is projected to increase slightly in 2026 and continue to grow until 2042. Between 2026 and 2040, around 5.3 million children will be born. This figure, however, will be 6.2% lower than that of the previous 15 years.

Starting in 2061, births could begin to increase again, due to increasingly larger generations reaching the ages of greatest fertility. Despite this, births are expected to be always below deaths.

The number of births is projected assuming that women's fertility maintains a slight but progressive upward trend. Thus, the average number of children per woman would be 1.16 in 2040, compared to 1.10 in 2024.

Life expectancy at birth would reach 87.0 years for men and 90.0 years for women in 2075, with a gain of 5.6 and 3.5 years, respectively, compared to current values.

For its part, life expectancy for people aged 65 in 2075 would be 23.5 years for men (3.7 more than at present) and 26.3 for women (2.7 more years).

Despite the longer life expectancy, the number of deaths will continue to grow, peaking in 2064.

Given the decline in the birth rate and the increase in deaths, in Spain there will always be more deaths than births (growth or negative natural balance) during the next 50 years. This natural balance would reach its lowest value around 2063, and would recover slightly thereafter.

Spain registered 1,288,562 immigrations in 2024, while 662,294 people left our country to reside abroad. The net migration figure was 626,268 people.

A similar net migration figure to that of 2024 is projected for 2026. From that year onwards the net figure will decline slightly, although it will always be positive.

This results in a net population gain due to migration of 2.7 million people in the first five projected years. And 6.3 million up to 2040. In the entire projective period, up to 2075, the total gain will be 15.5 million people.

The population between 20 and 64 years of age, which currently accounts for 60.9% of the total, will account for 54.5% in 2052. After a certain recovery, it will rebound to 54.5% in 2076.

The percentage of the population aged 65 and over, which currently stands at 21.1% of the total, is projected to peak at 30.9% around 2076.

If current demographic trends continue, the dependency ratio (quotient, as a percentage, between the population aged under 16 or over 64 and the population aged 16 to 64) is also projected to peak in 2076 (73.2%).

If current demographic trends continue, there will be diverse changes over the next 15 years in the various autonomous communities.

There will thus be population increases in 13 autonomous regions and decreases in four.

The largest increases in regional terms are projected to occur in the Comunitat Valenciana (16.4%), Illes Balears (16.2%) and Comunidad de Madrid (14.4%). In contrast, the most significant decreases will be recorded in Extremadura (-4.5%), Principado de Asturias (-1.6%) and Castilla y León (-1.0%).

This analysis is intended to help better interpret the true meaning of projections, which is not to predict the future, but to simulate what would happen under certain conditions that reflect the current demographic situation.

By combining the different scenarios of both fertility and migration balance, it can be seen how the population in the next 50 years would range between 42,730,217 inhabitants in the lowest scenario and 64,011,425 in the highest scenario.

Furthermore, a special scenario has been established in which the migration balance would be zero for the entire projective period, which would produce a population of 31.7 million people.

The data published today update the 2024-2074 Population Projections, the results of which are no longer representative. All the results of this operation are available at INEbase.