The 2026 - 2041 Household Projection reflects the result that the continuation of current demographic trends will have on the number of households. Due to its construction method, its results are consistent with those of the Population Projections released today.
According to this projection, the number of households residing in Spain would increase by 2,184,048 (11.1%) between 2026 and 2041, reaching a total of 21,943,397. During the same period, the resident population in Spain will increase by 4,140,364 (8.4%).
This will mean a reduction in the number of people living in each household. Thus, the average household size would decrease from the current 2.49 to 2.43 persons in 2041.
Between 2026 and 2041, the number of smallest households (of one or two people) will increase, and to a lesser extent, those with three people. Conversely, those with four or more people will decrease slightly.
Single-person households would show the greatest increase in the next 15 years, in both absolute and relative values. In 2041, the number of single-person households would come to 6.7 million (30.6% of the total), an increase of 19.6% compared to 2026.
The number of people living alone would increase from representing 11.3% of the total population in 2026, to 12.5% in 2041.
The number of households consisting of two people is projected to reach 6.7 million in 2041 (30.5% of the total), with an increase of 16.7% since 2026. They will no longer be the most frequent type, as they will be overtaken by single-person households.
Percentage
On the other hand, households with three people are expected to maintain positive growth rates throughout the 2026-2041 period, albeit with limited growth (3.6%), thereby losing importance compared with other sizes, accounting from 19.8% of households in 2026 and falling to 18.5% in 2041.
Finally, households with four or more members will see a slight decrease of 0.4%, falling from 22.7% of households in 2026 to 20.4% in 2041.
The average number of persons per household has maintained a downward trend since the last censuses. It fell from almost four people in 1970, to fewer than three in 2001. Since then it has continued to decline, reaching 2.50 in 2023.
This downward trend is expected to continue throughout the projected period, going from an average size of 2.49 persons per household in 2026 to 2.43 in 2041.
The data observed up to 1 January 2026 comes from the Continuous Population Statistics.
The number of households is projected to increase in all autonomous communities throughout the 2026-2041 period.
The largest increases in relative terms will be registered in Región de Murcia (20.7%), Comunitat Valenciana (16.0%) and Illes Balears (14.7%).
The average size of the household is expected to decrease in all the communities, except in Illes Balears, Cataluña and Comunitat Valenciana. The largest decreases will occur in Extremadura, Región de Murcia and Cantabria.
With regard to the percentage of single-person households, Castilla y León will be in the lead (with 39.2% of the total in 2041), followed by Principado de Asturias (37.7%) and País Vasco (36.7%). On the other hand, Illes Balears would be the community with the smallest percentage of single-person households (25.9%), followed by Comunidad de Madrid (26.8%) and Cataluña (27.5%).
The data published today update the Household Projection 2024-2039, the results of which are no longer representative. All the results of this operation are available at INEBase.
The Household Projection provides a statistical simulation of the number of future households in Spain as a whole, in each autonomous community, and in each province, should the currently observed demographic trends continue, as well as household distribution by size. The results are fully consistent with those of the Population Projections.
This operation provides results for the following 15 years, taking as a starting point the number of households on 1 January 2026.
The numbers provided by the Continuous Population Statistics for the years prior to elaboration of the projection are used as a statistical tool, which allows us to obtain the evolution of the proportion of people, according to characteristics of sex, age and province of residence, residing in households with one, two, three, four or five or more members.
There is no international regulatory standard in regard to household projections, so any projections made by other international organizations would respond to their own purposes, methodologies, and assumptions, and their results would not generally coincide with each other or with those of this operation.
For more information, you can access the methodology and the standardised methodological report.
INE statistics are produced in accordance with the Code of Good Practice for European Statistics. More information on Quality at INE and the Code of Best Practices.
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